The third edition of the Hiscox Artist Top 100 (HAT 100) report points to a profound transformation in the contemporary art market worldwide. After years of speculative highs and record prices, the current scenario reveals a significant retraction, marked by a drop in sales value, negative returns on investment and a change in the profile of collectors, who are now more cautious and drawn to lower-priced works.
This new market cycle is less driven by speculation and more focused on resilience, accessibility and diversity. For collectors, investors and institutions working in the preservation and storage of works of art, understanding this dynamic is essential to plan strategies and anticipate trends. For the Brazilian scene, the report's highlight is the artist Marina Perez Simão, the only one from the country to appear in the ranking, in 85th position.
The market turns to more accessible works
While sales of lots above US$ 1 million plunged 41%, transactions of works below US$ 50 thousand grew 20%, moving US$ 59 million, a 5% increase in value. This movement signals a change in profile: from speculators to collectors more focused on acquisition and preservation, while also making the market more accessible to new buyers.
Curiously, even with the drop in total sales value, the number of works traded rose 5%, reaching a record volume. Contemporary works (post-2000) now account for 58% of all post-war and contemporary art lots sold at auction, the highest share since 2018.
More artists at auction houses and more women in the spotlight
Despite the adverse scenario, the number of artists with works produced after 2000 present at auctions hit a record: 2,602 artists, a 12% increase over 2023 and more than double the figure recorded in 2019. Of the total, 40% were under 45 years old, consolidating the presence of younger artists in the market, even though demand has decreased.
The report also highlights progress in female participation: 822 women artists had works auctioned, compared to 728 the previous year. On the list of the 100 most successful in the HAT 100, 32 women figured in 2024, versus 30 in 2023. Yayoi Kusama remained at the top, accompanied by names such as Cecily Brown, Lynette Yiadom-Boakye and Claude Lalanne.
Among this year's highlights, the Brazilian artist Marina Perez Simão appears in 85th place in the ranking, with a sales volume of US$1.2 million in 2024, consolidating her presence in the international market. The record holder, among women and men alike, is the Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama, who registered a sales volume of over US$58 million.
Sharp drop in sales and financial returns
Auction sales of works produced after the year 2000 fell 27% in 2024, totaling US$ 698 million, down from US$ 956 million the previous year. Compared to the peak recorded in 2021, the retraction reaches 41%. The data point to a pullback in market speculation, which reached its height during the pandemic.
Young and emerging artists lose ground
One of the most affected segments was that of artists under 45 years old, not because of the quality of their work, but as a consequence of the sharp decline in sales of works priced above US$1 million, a market historically more prone to speculation. The sales value of this group fell 49%, while the number of lots sold dropped 7%.
The so-called "wet paint" artworks (works resold at auction within two years of their creation) also fell 64%. The number of lots sold decreased 25%, reaching the lowest level in seven years. In addition, almost 20% of these works failed to find buyers at all, while the proportion of pieces sold above their estimate receded from 63% in 2022 to 38% this year.
New market geography: New York and London gain ground
In geographic terms, New York consolidated its position as the market's capital, concentrating 51% of total sales value, a jump from 42% in 2023. London also advanced, accounting for 25% of sales, against 21% the previous year.
By contrast, Hong Kong suffered a steep 52% drop in financial volume, hitting its lowest level since 2018. The retraction is linked to the Chinese economic slowdown. Even so, the city remains relevant, with a sales volume above that recorded in the pre-pandemic period.
